Spreading Around Your Forwards' Minutes
Spreading Around Your Forwards' Minutes
Depth Rating = % of even strength minutes played by 1st line + 2 x % of even strength minutes played by 2nd line + 3 x % of even strength minutes played by 3rd line + 4 x % of even strength minutes played by 4th line
A team which showed up with just their first line and didn't substitute at all would get a 100, and a team which played all of their lines perfectly equally would get a 250. That gives us a range to understand how much a given strategy is relying on depth.
These are the platonic ideals of a line deployment strategy- real hockey is far too chaotic for any of these concepts to be implemented perfectly. Line changes can be sloppy, players can get hemmed in their defensive zone, or their skates can break, or any number of things can muddy a perfect substitution scheme.
Many coaches also like to put their lines in a blender, changing who plays on which line, using a particular player in a specialized role, or trying to take advantage of a line matchup. Even when that occurs, they'll still be pursuing some variant of one of these strategies- the players will just be shuffled around. Often, they'll also change the strategy towards the end of the game, like shortening the bench to try and tie up a losing scoreline.
Now let's get stuck in.
Standard Forward Rotation
Line 1: 33%
Line 2: 28%
Line 3: 24%
Line 4: 15%
Depth Rating: 221
Why play your forwards like this?
This is the way things have been done for a long time. It's also intuitive: if a player is better, get them out there more, and if a player is even better than that, get them out there even more. That means a coach can make spur of the moment gut-level decisions and generally get the players they want out on the ice.
Mentally, this strategy can serve as a carrot and stick for players. Play well, move to a line that plays more. Play poorly, get moved to a line that plays less. Some players are going to respond well to that added layer of motivation.
What's the catch?
Players frequently talk about flow. Having a rhythm, knowing when you'll be on the ice next, helps a lot with that. If the coach is flying by the seat of his pants, the players feel it. It can impact the players' confidence, particularly at the bottom of the lineup.
You're also relying heavily on the coach's ability to evaluate talent. Coaches are imperfect beings, prone to making bad evaluations or being outright galaxy brained.
Top-6 / Bottom-6
Line 1: 34%Line 2: 34%Line 3: 16%Line 4: 16%Depth Rating: 214
Why play your forwards like this?It lets you specialize. The third and fourth lines can soak up defensive zone face-offs and line-match against opposing scoring lines, freeing up your goal scorers in the first and second lines to score goals, feasting on easy shifts that start in the offensive zone and against weaker opposition.
What's the catch?It's questionable how much impact zone starts or quality of competition have, so those defensive players might not be freeing up the top players as much as you'd think. There is some value to be found there, but it's going to be marginal gains unless the coach commits to a cartoonish level of specialization.
Playing your lines this way also forces your team to be constructed a certain way. If that up-and-coming young gun isn't good enough to play on your to lines yet, and they're not built for checking line work, then they're going to be stuck in the minors.
Why play your forwards like this?
It lets you specialize. The third and fourth lines can soak up defensive zone face-offs and line-match against opposing scoring lines, freeing up your goal scorers in the first and second lines to score goals, feasting on easy shifts that start in the offensive zone and against weaker opposition.
What's the catch?
It's questionable how much impact zone starts or quality of competition have, so those defensive players might not be freeing up the top players as much as you'd think. There is some value to be found there, but it's going to be marginal gains unless the coach commits to a cartoonish level of specialization.
Playing your lines this way also forces your team to be constructed a certain way. If that up-and-coming young gun isn't good enough to play on your to lines yet, and they're not built for checking line work, then they're going to be stuck in the minors.
Rolling the Top 3 Lines
Line 1: 30%Line 2: 30%Line 3: 30%Line 4: 10%Depth Rating: 220
Why play your forwards like this?If you have scorers up and down your lineup, this lets them get into the game, get a rhythm, and feel like their best selves. It's not leaning too heavily on anyone, and no lines are double shifting (taking just one shift's rest between shifts) so they're going to be fresh and energetic. If you're not completely benching the 4th line (10% instead of, say, 5%), you can use them as specialists, similar to how one might in a top-6/bottom-6 deployment.
What's the catch?It leaves your team with a choice. You can leave one line loaded up with your best players, in which case you're getting a strong shift once every three shifts, but you're rolling out lesser units while they rest. Alternatively, you can split up your best players. That way, you always have one on the ice, but you're relying on them to drive a line by themselves without any help from other star players.
Why play your forwards like this?
If you have scorers up and down your lineup, this lets them get into the game, get a rhythm, and feel like their best selves. It's not leaning too heavily on anyone, and no lines are double shifting (taking just one shift's rest between shifts) so they're going to be fresh and energetic. If you're not completely benching the 4th line (10% instead of, say, 5%), you can use them as specialists, similar to how one might in a top-6/bottom-6 deployment.
What's the catch?
It leaves your team with a choice. You can leave one line loaded up with your best players, in which case you're getting a strong shift once every three shifts, but you're rolling out lesser units while they rest. Alternatively, you can split up your best players. That way, you always have one on the ice, but you're relying on them to drive a line by themselves without any help from other star players.
Rolling the Bottom 3 Lines
Line 1: 33%Line 2: 19%Line 3: 19%Line 4: 19%Depth Rating: 204
Why play your forwards like this?If your team is blessed with both excellent star power and an array of usable but not excellent depth players, this keeps everybody happy. The top line gets to play top line minutes, and the depth players all get a regular shift with that all-important flow.
What's the catch?Most teams aren't going to have a team that's built like this- they're going to have some better and worse players in the lower end of the lineup. If you have an excellent second line-quality center, you're wasting that player by playing them with fourth-line minutes.
Why play your forwards like this?
If your team is blessed with both excellent star power and an array of usable but not excellent depth players, this keeps everybody happy. The top line gets to play top line minutes, and the depth players all get a regular shift with that all-important flow.
What's the catch?
Most teams aren't going to have a team that's built like this- they're going to have some better and worse players in the lower end of the lineup. If you have an excellent second line-quality center, you're wasting that player by playing them with fourth-line minutes.
Rolling 4 Lines
Line 1: 25%Line 2: 25%Line 3: 25%Line 4: 25%Depth Rating: 250
Why play your forwards like this?It's so simple. You literally do not need a coach behind the bench- players will just automatically do this if nobody tells them differently. That's not really the benefit though- what you're getting is waves of the freshest possible players, with excellent flow, and getting every player involved in the game. It's the best way to play when trying to get young players experience, and it's the most sustainable way to play in extended late-night playoff overtimes.
What's the catch?Nobody really wants their fourth line players playing a quarter of the game's even strength time. Even if the lines are relatively balanced, you're still taking minutes away from your most impactful players and giving them to your least impactful ones.
Why play your forwards like this?
It's so simple. You literally do not need a coach behind the bench- players will just automatically do this if nobody tells them differently. That's not really the benefit though- what you're getting is waves of the freshest possible players, with excellent flow, and getting every player involved in the game. It's the best way to play when trying to get young players experience, and it's the most sustainable way to play in extended late-night playoff overtimes.
What's the catch?
Nobody really wants their fourth line players playing a quarter of the game's even strength time. Even if the lines are relatively balanced, you're still taking minutes away from your most impactful players and giving them to your least impactful ones.
Closing Thoughts
This all might seem trivial, but being able to optimize how much individual players are playing is going to have an outsized impact on how well the team does collectively.
Next time you watch a game, try to keep track of what order the lines are being played in. Broadcasts will always give you the (expected) line combinations at the start of the game, so you can know who is theoretically supposed to be on what line. It can be easier if you only keep track of one position, like the center. Keep track on your phone or with a pen and paper and see if you can tell what the coach is trying to do with your team's forward minutes.
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